Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
